The following is an opinion by Sunday Nation columnist Gitau Warigi
Deputy President William Ruto is a wily guy. Very. That is why I got surprised when he exposed Ababu Namwamba so openly. By saying he engineered his defection. I am told he was speaking in a Kalenjin dialect in Baringo when he let it slip that he was behind the wave of defections from ODM in the Western region, specifically that of Ababu. Whether that is true or not is open to question.
Ababu quickly denied any Jubilee link. Ruto kept mum. The public was left to make its own conclusions.
That gave Raila Odinga an opening. The impression ODM is pushing is that Ababu and his fellow Western defectors have been “bought.” The buying aspect is a very potent thing in Kenyan politics.
It suggests a weak character who has been compromised. There is a narrative the Luo have about the Luhya which rhymes with being compromised. They think them flaky. I am not sure about that. I am being very blunt here.
I doubt Ababu and company are making their moves driven by Ruto’s wallet. There are certain calculations I can sense which Raila is entirely unaware of. Every hick in town is putting his bet on Jubilee winning next year.
There is too much confusion in Cord at the moment. Not only in the former Western province, but in Coast region also. What is likely to emerge in Ukambani may be even worse. Smart Alecs are positioning themselves for the inevitable. I believe that is what Ababu and his troupe are playing at.
Musalia Mudavadi knows it too, though he is certainly not joining the Jubilee bandwagon soon. And he likes being gentlemanly.
Others like former parliamentary Speaker Kenneth Marende are sniffing in the same direction.
Cyrus Jirongo, the other player in the Western region, must be watching events very closely.
It’s an open season now for political alliances. As Raila likes to say, there are only two horses – Jubilee and ODM. I have deliberately avoided mentioning Cord for a reason. There is a lot that is cooking in there which awaits the period ahead of the General Election next year. What will come out has yet to become clear.
FLOWER GIRLS
Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetang’ula have no intention of being flower girls. That is for sure. But the chances of them sailing individually and making it to the beach safely look bleak. They won’t get far.
So, how do you navigate the political terrain? You get smart. If a certain horse is not looking like it will win, attach yourself to another which you think has better prospects. I suspect that is what Ababu is doing.
Raila is a worthy opponent of Uhuru Kenyatta, but he gets strayed by brinkmanship. He also has the same old problem of a man who sees a nail and thinks only of a hammer. He has been threatening street protests whenever he faces obstacles, be it on the parliamentary process about IEBC and even, incongruously, about Speaker Justin Muturi’s last ruling ejecting Ugunja MP Opiyo Wandayi from the House.
The Western region has no love for Uhuru, frankly. Nor does it like Ruto. But it is conflicted because it is exasperated with Raila’s inabilibility to get power. That’s why the region is in restless ferment. UhuRuto have sensed an opening, and they are going for it. Raila may not have the resources to match the duo, but he will play the regional card effectively. He did it well last week when he invaded Luhyaland.
There is tumult in the base, but he is fighting hard to retain the ground.
There are ways to defeat UhuRuto if only Raila can think out of the box. Uhuru cheekily challenged him the other day to get creative. First, leave out the football metaphors, which Ruto loves to use to ridicule him about vitendawili. Plus the pap about when he was prime minister and supposedly did this and that.
UhuRuto are ruthless young characters who are determined to defeat him. Raila must keep Western on his side to have any chance next year. He must also watch the Coast flank closely. There is trouble brewing there too. Let him not have any illusion he is dealing with the likes of Mwai Kibaki.
There seems to be a personal feud between the DP and Raila which apparently started when they were in ODM. But if he thinks Uhuru is a puppy, and Ruto the puppeteer, he is sadly mistaken.
The President is a vicious number himself. This UhuRuto couple want to win next year at all costs, and Raila must put up a fight worthy of himself and Kenya. It should not be personal, but something to make us all proud.
